Oxford United 1–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hull City

C. Brannagan 13' (pen)

M. Belloumi 4'

4/3/2026

Championship · Round 40Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Oxford United54%

×Draw24%

Hull City22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.01

Oxford United

1.71

Hull City

1.01

Oxford United creates 69% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 29 away

1.83

creates per match

1.19

0.83

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Oxford United

1.83

Hull City

1.19

allows per match

Oxford United

0.83

Hull City

1.59

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Oxford United-0.40scores less

Hull City+0.02on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

78%

Oxford United or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

46%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

29%

Hull City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

82%

Oxford United 2+ goals

51%

Oxford United 3+ goals

24%

Hull City 1+ goals

64%

Hull City 2+ goals

27%

Hull City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

71%

Hull City (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 7 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.83 + Hull City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hull City attack 1.19 + Oxford United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oxford United scores more

54%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

22%

Oxford United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Mills

Oxford United · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

M. Belloumi↳ S. Ajayi

12'

Charlie Hughes

13'

C. BrannaganPenalty

46'

B. Spencer← R. Roosken

46'

J. Egan← C. Hughes

64'

K. Dowell← M. Belloumi

64'

L. Koumas← J. Gelhardt

76'

M. Harris← J. Donley

76'

Jeon Jin-Woo← M. Peart-Harris

77'

W. Vaulks← Y. E. Konak

83'

T. Collyer← J. Lundstram

83'

L. Millar← K. Joseph

90+2'

N. Prelec← W. Lankshear

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordHull

Overview

34%Possession66%

16Total Shots9

3.44Expected Goals (xG)0.82

1Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target2

5Off Target4

7Blocked3

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

263Total Passes515

165Accurate Passes419

63%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.37Goals Prevented0.37

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1