Hull City 3–2 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Oxford United

O. McBurnie 90'

M. Crooks 20'

J. Gelhardt 2'

C. Brannagan 26'

W. Lankshear 9'

8/17/2025

Championship · Round 2MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hull City38%

×Draw25%

Oxford United37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.40

Hull City

1.44

Oxford United

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 6 away

1.34

creates per match

1.33

1.46

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Hull City

1.34

Oxford United

1.33

allows per match

Hull City

1.46

Oxford United

1.53

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Hull City-0.03on par

Oxford United+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

63%

Hull City or Oxford United

75%

Draw or Oxford United

62%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

18%

Oxford United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

76%

Hull City 2+ goals

42%

Hull City 3+ goals

18%

Oxford United 1+ goals

75%

Oxford United 2+ goals

41%

Oxford United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

51%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.34 + Oxford United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Oxford United attack 1.33 + Hull City defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hull City scores more

38%

level

25%

Oxford United scores more

37%

Hull City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

O. McBurnie

Hull City · F

9.5

Match Events

2'

J. Gelhardt↳ O. McBurnie

9'

W. Lankshear↳ T. Goodrham

12'

Brodie Spencer

20'

M. Crooks↳ O. McBurnie

26'

C. Brannagan

27'

Matt Crooks

46'

S. Long← M. Harris

57'

M. Phillips← T. Goodrham

57'

S. Dembele← S. Mills

67'

B. Akintola← J. Ndala

67'

A. Kamara← K. Palmer

76'

T. Bradshaw← W. Lankshear

85'

J. Currie← G. Leigh

87'

R. Slater← M. Crooks

88'

K. Joseph← J. Gelhardt

90+7'

A. Famewo← O. McBurnie

90'

O. McBurnie↳ R. Giles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullOxford

Overview

75%Possession25%

19Total Shots11

1.91Expected Goals (xG)1.02

10Corners4

7Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots11

7On Target6

2Off Target3

10Blocked2

11Inside Box7

8Outside Box4

Passing

75%Possession25%

629Total Passes204

554Accurate Passes131

88%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

-0.85Goals Prevented-0.85

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2