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Hull City vs Oxford United — League One 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oxford United
Oxford United
K. Lewis-Potter 71', 22'
3/13/2021League OneLeague One · Round 36KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hull City66%
×Draw23%
Oxford United11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.67
Oxford United
0.50

Hull City creates 234% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.33
Oxford United
0.67

allows per match

Hull City
0.33
Oxford United
2.00

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
89%
Hull City or Oxford United
77%
Draw or Oxford United
34%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
38%
Oxford United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
81%
Hull City 2+ goals
50%
Hull City 3+ goals
23%
Oxford United 1+ goals
39%
Oxford United 2+ goals
9%
Oxford United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
86%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.33 + Oxford United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Oxford United attack 0.67 + Hull City defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hull City scores more
66%
level
23%
Oxford United scores more
11%

Hull City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
M. IngramHull CityHull City · G
8.5

Match Events

22'
K. Lewis-Potter↳ L. Coyle
40'
Greg Docherty
56'
B. Barker← M. Sykes
71'
K. Lewis-Potter↳ G. Docherty
72'
J. Magennis← K. Lewis-Potter
72'
M. Taylor← E. Lee
77'
D. Crowley← G. Whyte
83'
J. Emmanuel← L. Coyle

Possession

36%Hull

Shots

8Hull

Pass accuracy

46%Hull

Statistics

HullOxford
Overview
36%Possession64%
8Total Shots9
2Corners3
17Fouls20
Shots
8Total Shots9
3On Target6
1Off Target3
4Blocked0
5Inside Box5
3Outside Box4
Passing
36%Possession64%
247Total Passes435
170Accurate Passes357
69%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls20
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Oxford United

Hull City beat Oxford United 2-0 in League One on March 13, 2021.

Goals: K. Lewis-Potter (22', 71').

Oxford United controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.