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Oxford United vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
H. ter Avest 55'
11/5/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 14The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Oxford United45%
×Draw26%
Hull City29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.43
Hull City
1.08

Oxford United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 42 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.29
Hull City
1.17

allows per match

Oxford United
1.00
Hull City
1.57

finishing

Oxford United+0.02on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
71%
Oxford United or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
55%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
22%
Hull City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
76%
Oxford United 2+ goals
42%
Oxford United 3+ goals
17%
Hull City 1+ goals
66%
Hull City 2+ goals
29%
Hull City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
61%
Hull City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.29 + Hull City defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hull City attack 1.17 + Oxford United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United scores more
45%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
29%

Oxford United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
M. BelloumiHull CityHull City · M
7.7

Match Events

50'
Ciaron Brown
55'
H. ter Avest↳ G. Leigh
58'
Elliott Moore
62'
S. Long← B. Nelson
69'
W. Jarvis← A. Ömür
69'
C. Drameh← R. Giles
71'
M. Harris← D. Scarlett
72'
P. Kioso← H. ter Avest
78'
G. Puerta← X. Simons
78'
M. Burstow← M. Belloumi
80'
Ruben Rodrigues← I. El Mizouni
84'
C. Bedia← K. Palmer
90'
Charlie Hughes

Possession

38%Oxford

Shots

4Oxford

Pass accuracy

47%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordHull
Overview
38%Possession62%
4Total Shots12
0.80Expected Goals (xG)1.02
2Corners6
8Fouls10
Shots
4Total Shots12
2On Target2
1Off Target8
1Blocked2
3Inside Box9
1Outside Box3
Passing
38%Possession62%
382Total Passes613
295Accurate Passes530
77%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
-0.14Goals Prevented-0.14
Discipline
8Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Championship: Oxford United 1–0 Hull City

Oxford United beat Hull City 1-0 in Championship on November 5, 2024.

Goals: H. ter Avest (55').

Hull City controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 4.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.