Hull City 2–1 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oxford United

G. Puerta 76'

J. Gelhardt 73'

M. Helik 66'

3/12/2025

Championship · Round 37The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Hull City44%

×Draw25%

Oxford United30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.21

Hull City

1.52

Oxford United

1.21

Hull City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 13 away

1.42

creates per match

1.04

1.39

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Hull City

1.42

Oxford United

1.04

allows per match

Hull City

1.39

Oxford United

1.63

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Hull City-0.06on par

Oxford United-0.04on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

70%

Hull City or Oxford United

75%

Draw or Oxford United

56%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

22%

Oxford United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

78%

Hull City 2+ goals

45%

Hull City 3+ goals

20%

Oxford United 1+ goals

70%

Oxford United 2+ goals

34%

Oxford United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

59%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.63 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.42 + Oxford United defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oxford United attack 1.04 + Hull City defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hull City scores more

44%

level

25%

Oxford United scores more

30%

Hull City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Gelhardt

Hull City · M

7.9

Match Events

45+2'

Joe Gelhardt

45+2'

Ciaron Brown

62'

B. Nelson← E. Moore

63'

P. Płacheta← S. Mills

66'

M. Helik↳ M. Phillips

67'

K. Palmer← M. Crooks

67'

R. Slater← S. Alzate

67'

M. Burstow← K. Joseph

73'

J. Gelhardt↳ K. Palmer

76'

G. Puerta↳ S. McLoughlin

78'

O. Romenij← Ruben Rodrigues

78'

S. Dembélé← M. Phillips

80'

Charlie Hughes

82'

Gustavo Puerta

87'

I. El Mizouni← A. Matos

90+7'

Gustavo Puerta

90+7'

Gustavo Puerta

90'

J. Egan← A. Kamara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullOxford

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots12

1.64Expected Goals (xG)0.49

4Corners6

13Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots12

2On Target3

7Off Target3

5Blocked6

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

424Total Passes340

324Accurate Passes241

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.89Goals Prevented-0.89

Discipline

13Fouls7

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Oxford United

Hull City beat Oxford United 2-1 in Championship on March 12, 2025.

Goals: M. Helik (66'), J. Gelhardt (73'), G. Puerta (76').

Hull City controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.

Hull City vs Oxford United — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hull City vs Oxford United