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Osters IF vs Gais — Allsvenskan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gais
Gais
A. Aliev 55'
I. Diabate 66'
5/18/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 10Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Osters IF31%
×Draw25%
Gais44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.25
Gais
1.56

Gais creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.36
Gais
1.30

allows per match

Osters IF
1.82
Gais
1.15

finishing

Osters IF-0.56scores less
Gais+0.05on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
56%
Osters IF or Gais
75%
Draw or Gais
69%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
13%
Gais wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
71%
Osters IF 2+ goals
36%
Osters IF 3+ goals
13%
Gais 1+ goals
79%
Gais 2+ goals
46%
Gais 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
41%
Gais (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

Gais away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.15 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.36 + Gais defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gais attack 1.30 + Osters IF defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Osters IF scores more
31%
level
25%
Gais scores more
44%

Gais at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
D. OlssonOsters IFOsters IF · D
8.0

Match Events

46'
E. Becirovic← R. Niklasson
46'
A. Wangberg← M. de Brienne
55'
A. Aliev↳ M. Tamminen
62'
K. Holmen← J. Fagerjord
62'
J. Lindberg← C. Amatkarijo
64'
C. Kouakou← A. Aliev
66'
I. Diabate↳ G. Lundgren
78'
D. Ask← N. Soderberg
85'
C. Morfelt← M. Tamminen
87'
R. Wendin← R. Frej
90+4'
Kingsley Gyamfi

Possession

55%Osters

Shots

7Osters

Pass accuracy

51%Osters

Statistics

OstersGais
Overview
55%Possession45%
7Total Shots14
0.84Expected Goals (xG)1.31
8Corners8
13Fouls12
Shots
7Total Shots14
1On Target4
3Off Target6
3Blocked4
3Inside Box7
4Outside Box7
Passing
55%Possession45%
483Total Passes394
407Accurate Passes324
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Osters IF 1 – 1 Gais

Osters IF and Gais drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on May 18, 2025.

Goals: A. Aliev (55'), I. Diabate (66').

Osters IF controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Vaxjo.