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Gais vs Osters IF — Superettan 2026

Gais
Gais
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Osters IF
Osters IF
Julius Lindberg 66'
10/3/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 25Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Gais39%
×Draw27%
Osters IF34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.33
Osters IF
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 100 away

creates per match

Gais
1.30
Osters IF
1.30

allows per match

Gais
1.14
Osters IF
1.37

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gais or draw
66%
Gais or Osters IF
73%
Draw or Osters IF
61%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
18%
Osters IF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
74%
Gais 2+ goals
38%
Gais 3+ goals
15%
Osters IF 1+ goals
70%
Osters IF 2+ goals
34%
Osters IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
54%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.37 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.30 + Osters IF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Osters IF attack 1.30 + Gais defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gais scores more
39%
level
27%
Osters IF scores more
34%

Gais at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
Niklas Söderberg
54'
D. Ljung← N. Söderberg
60'
Adam Herdonsson
60'
A. Henriksson← M. Çelik
66'
Julius Lindberg
74'
Sebastian Hedlund
75'
Þ. Þórisson← S. Hedlund
75'
A. Yakoub← A. Wiberg
75'
A. Mörfelt← V. Rodić
79'
V. Krüger← J. Åberg
79'
Jonas Lindberg← D. Salihović
81'
I. Magnusson← M. Kusu
86'
Jesper Jonasson Westermark
89'
Chovanie Amatkarijo
89'
A. Ahl-Holmström← C. Amatkarijo
90+1'
Ivan Kričak

Possession

54%Gais

Shots

12Gais

Statistics

GaisOsters
Overview
54%Possession46%
12Total Shots7
6Corners3
3Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots7
4On Target2
5Off Target3
3Blocked2
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
3Fouls18
1Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Superettan: Gais 1–0 Osters IF

Gais beat Osters IF 1-0 in Superettan on October 3, 2023.

Goals: Julius Lindberg (66').

Gais controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.