Gais 1–1 Osters IF: Result & Stats | Allsvenskan

Gais

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Osters IF

I. Diabate 24'

D. Ljung 40'

11/2/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 29Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Gais53%

×Draw24%

Osters IF23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaisExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.04

Gais

1.73

Osters IF

1.04

Gais creates 66% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

1.68

creates per match

0.93

1.15

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Gais

1.68

Osters IF

0.93

allows per match

Gais

1.15

Osters IF

1.77

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Gais-0.15scores less

Osters IF-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gais or draw

77%

Gais or Osters IF

76%

Draw or Osters IF

47%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+

29%

Osters IF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals

82%

Gais 2+ goals

52%

Gais 3+ goals

25%

Osters IF 1+ goals

65%

Osters IF 2+ goals

28%

Osters IF 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)

70%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.15 · 19 matches

Osters IF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.77 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.68 + Osters IF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.73

Osters IF attack 0.93 + Gais defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gais scores more

53%

level

24%

Osters IF scores more

23%

Gais at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Lindberg

Gais · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

I. Diabate↳ R. Niklasson

40'

D. Ljung

57'

Kingsley Gyamfi

59'

L. Bergquist← A. Suhonen

62'

R. Wendin← M. de Brienne

62'

J. Fagerjord← R. Niklasson

64'

Anes Cardaklija

69'

R. Adjei← M. Christensen

70'

Robin Wendin Thomasson

77'

R. Frej← A. Wangberg

84'

E. Becirovic← A. Boudri

84'

J. Lindberg← K. Holmen

90+8'

Mattis Adolfsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GaisOsters

Overview

63%Possession37%

29Total Shots11

2.16Expected Goals (xG)1.77

11Corners6

11Fouls16

Shots

29Total Shots11

3On Target3

11Off Target5

15Blocked3

18Inside Box7

11Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

467Total Passes281

384Accurate Passes195

82%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Allsvenskan: Gais 1–1 Osters IF

Gais and Osters IF drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on November 2, 2025.

Goals: I. Diabate (24'), D. Ljung (40').

Gais controlled possession (63%) and registered 29 shots to 11.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.

Gais vs Osters IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: Gais 1–1 Osters IF