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Osters IF vs Gais — Superettan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gais
Gais
T. Varmanen 39'
11/7/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 28Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Osters IF46%
×Draw26%
Gais28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.51
Gais
1.12

Osters IF creates 35% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 65 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.68
Gais
1.17

allows per match

Osters IF
1.07
Gais
1.34

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
72%
Osters IF or Gais
74%
Draw or Gais
54%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
23%
Gais wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
78%
Osters IF 2+ goals
44%
Osters IF 3+ goals
19%
Gais 1+ goals
67%
Gais 2+ goals
31%
Gais 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
62%
Gais (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Gais away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.68 + Gais defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.51

Gais attack 1.17 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Osters IF scores more
46%
level
26%
Gais scores more
28%

Osters IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
August Wangberg
39'
T. Varmanen
46'
E. Engqvist← B. Nordström
58'
H. Ibrahim← J. Lindberg
59'
Joackim Aberg
71'
M. Rochester Sørensen← M. Kusu
71'
T. Brenner Toris← J. Westermark
71'
D. Sterner← N. Ladan
72'
R. Yarsuvat← S. Alexandersson
76'
Alex Þór Hauksson
83'
I. Magnusson← N. Mortensen
83'
V. Alexandersson← J. Lindberg
83'
A. Egnell← M. Moënza
90+4'
Niclas Andersen

Possession

53%Osters

Shots

6Osters

Statistics

OstersGais
Overview
53%Possession47%
6Total Shots2
4Corners5
16Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots2
4On Target0
2Off Target2
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Osters IF 1 – 0 Gais

Osters IF beat Gais 1-0 in Superettan on November 7, 2021.

Goals: T. Varmanen (39').

Osters IF controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 2.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.