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Osters IF vs Gais — Superettan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gais
Gais
A. Wiberg 20'
F. Beckman 90+6'
G. Lundgren 29'
5/13/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 7Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Osters IF46%
×Draw26%
Gais28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.51
Gais
1.12

Osters IF creates 35% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 65 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.68
Gais
1.17

allows per match

Osters IF
1.07
Gais
1.34

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
72%
Osters IF or Gais
74%
Draw or Gais
54%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
23%
Gais wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
78%
Osters IF 2+ goals
44%
Osters IF 3+ goals
19%
Gais 1+ goals
67%
Gais 2+ goals
31%
Gais 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
62%
Gais (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Gais away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.68 + Gais defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.51

Gais attack 1.17 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Osters IF scores more
46%
level
26%
Gais scores more
28%

Osters IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
A. Wiberg
29'
G. Lundgren
36'
Alex Þór Hauksson
61'
Niklas Söderberg
63'
E. Binaku← N. Andersén
65'
T. Johansson← R. Sigurgeirsson
73'
Jonas Lindberg← M. Çelik
76'
V. Rodić← D. Kozica
80'
Joackim Aberg
81'
V. Krüger← E. Binaku
81'
V. Alexandersson← D. Salihović
81'
F. Beckman← J. Åberg
82'
D. Ljung← A. Hauksson
82'
A. Gustafson← A. Bonnah
84'
Daniel Ljung
86'
Adam Herdonsson
90'
Theodor Johansson
90+6'
F. Beckman

Possession

37%Osters

Shots

10Osters

Statistics

OstersGais
Overview
37%Possession63%
10Total Shots10
5Corners5
20Fouls5
Shots
10Total Shots10
3On Target5
1Off Target3
6Blocked2
Passing
37%Possession63%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
20Fouls5
4Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Osters IF vs Gais

Gais beat Osters IF 2-1 in Superettan on May 13, 2023.

Goals: A. Wiberg (20'), G. Lundgren (29'), F. Beckman (90+6').

Gais controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.