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North Carolina Courage W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026

North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
M. Matsukubo 77', 51'
5/17/2025NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 9WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

North Carolina Courage W55%
×Draw23%
Chicago Red Stars W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina Courage W
1.83
Chicago Red Stars W
1.09

North Carolina Courage W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 83 away

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.78
Chicago Red Stars W
1.13

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.06
Chicago Red Stars W
1.88

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw
77%
North Carolina Courage W or Chicago Red Stars W
77%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
45%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
31%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
84%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
54%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
28%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
66%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
30%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
71%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.78 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more
55%
level
23%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
23%

North Carolina Courage W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. O'SullivanNorth Carolina Courage WNorth Carolina Courage W · M
7.9

Match Events

29'
Riley Jackson
51'
M. Matsukubo↳ D. O'Sullivan
60'
S. Koyama← A. Sanchez
64'
LudmilaPenalty cancelled
67'
Cari Roccaro
68'
C. Vine← J. Shaw
68'
J. Joseph← A. Schlegel
68'
H. Anderson← C. Biegalski
77'
M. Matsukubo↳ S. Koyama
82'
A. Cook← S. Groom
82'
M. Hayashi← M. Lopez Millan
84'
D. Weatherholt← N. Staude
84'
M. Speck← T. Lussi
84'
Aline Gomes← R. Jackson
86'
M. Johnson← Ludmila
90+2'
Taylor Malham

Possession

53%North

Shots

14North

Pass accuracy

52%North

Statistics

NorthChicago
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots10
4Corners5
8Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots10
8On Target4
2Off Target5
4Blocked1
9Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
432Total Passes384
351Accurate Passes286
81%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
8Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

NWSL Women: North Carolina Courage W 2–0 Chicago Red Stars W

North Carolina Courage W beat Chicago Red Stars W 2-0 in NWSL Women on May 17, 2025.

Goals: M. Matsukubo (51', 77').

North Carolina Courage W controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary.