Chicago Red Stars W 3–3 North Carolina Courage W

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

North Carolina Courage W

Ludmila 86', 81', 76'

J. Shaw 83'

T. Lussi 62'

M. Matsukubo 49'

8/23/2025

NWSL Women · Round 17SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W38%

×Draw26%

North Carolina Courage W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchNorth Carolina Courage W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.35

Chicago Red Stars W

1.40

North Carolina Courage W

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 82 away

1.42

creates per match

1.33

1.37

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.42

North Carolina Courage W

1.33

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.37

North Carolina Courage W

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

64%

Chicago Red Stars W or North Carolina Courage W

74%

Draw or North Carolina Courage W

62%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

18%

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

75%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

41%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

17%

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

74%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

39%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

52%

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.42 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.33 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

38%

level

26%

North Carolina Courage W scores more

36%

Chicago Red Stars W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chicago Red Stars W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

A. Sanchez

North Carolina Courage W · F

8.3

Match Events

25'

Maitane López

43'

Manaka Matsukubo

44'

Leilanni Nesbeth

46'

J. Grosso← L. Nesbeth

46'

Ludmila← J. Joseph

49'

M. Matsukubo↳ A. Sanchez

56'

M. Berkely← Aline Gomes

62'

T. Lussi

64'

M. Hayashi← M. Lopez Millan

64'

67'

71'

71'

76'

Ludmila↳ S. Staab

81'

Ludmila↳ S. Staab

82'

A. Cook← K. Hendrich

83'

J. Shaw↳ M. Speck

86'

Ludmila↳ M. Hayashi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicagoNorth

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots12

4Corners7

13Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots12

6On Target6

3Off Target3

1Blocked3

8Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

36%Possession64%

260Total Passes475

175Accurate Passes379

67%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3