North Carolina Courage W 4–0 Chicago Red Stars W

North Carolina Courage W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chicago Red Stars W

5/16/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageWakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

North Carolina Courage W55%

×Draw23%

Chicago Red Stars W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Carolina Courage WExpected goals in this matchChicago Red Stars W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.09

North Carolina Courage W

1.83

Chicago Red Stars W

1.09

North Carolina Courage W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 83 away

1.78

creates per match

1.13

1.06

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.78

Chicago Red Stars W

1.13

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W

1.06

Chicago Red Stars W

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw

77%

North Carolina Courage W or Chicago Red Stars W

77%

Draw or Chicago Red Stars W

45%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

31%

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

84%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

54%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

28%

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

66%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

30%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

71%

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.78 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more

55%

level

23%

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

23%

North Carolina Courage W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff