Chicago Red Stars W 1–3 North Carolina Courage W

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

North Carolina Courage W

Ludmila 68'

Kerolin 65'

D. O'Sullivan 42'

C. Roccaro 15' (OG)

9/29/2024

NWSL Women · Round 17SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W38%

×Draw26%

North Carolina Courage W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchNorth Carolina Courage W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.35

Chicago Red Stars W

1.40

North Carolina Courage W

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 82 away

1.42

creates per match

1.33

1.37

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.42

North Carolina Courage W

1.33

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.37

North Carolina Courage W

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

64%

Chicago Red Stars W or North Carolina Courage W

74%

Draw or North Carolina Courage W

62%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

18%

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

75%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

41%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

17%

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

74%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

39%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

52%

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.42 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.33 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

38%

level

26%

North Carolina Courage W scores more

36%

Chicago Red Stars W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chicago Red Stars W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Ludmila

Chicago Red Stars W · F

7.5

Match Events

15'

C. RoccaroOwn goal

18'

O. Wingate← B. Pinto

42'

D. O'Sullivan↳ T. Lussi

57'

Kerolin← Aline Gomes

58'

S. Groom← A. Schlegel

58'

Nádia Gomes← J. Joseph

65'

Kerolin↳ O. Wingate

68'

Ludmila↳ T. Malham

77'

Júlia Bianchi← J. Grosso

77'

B. St-Georges← T. Lussi

77'

V. Pickett← A. Sanchez

77'

D. Weatherholt← N. Miura

86'

T. Milazzo← T. Malham

86'

L. Nesbeth← B. Franklin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicagoNorth

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots10

4Corners2

9Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target5

2Off Target4

5Blocked1

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

392Total Passes500

298Accurate Passes416

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

4Offsides3

Match Recap: Chicago Red Stars W vs North Carolina Courage W

North Carolina Courage W beat Chicago Red Stars W 3-1 in NWSL Women on September 29, 2024.

Goals: C. Roccaro (15' o.g.), D. O'Sullivan (42'), Kerolin (65'), Ludmila (68').

North Carolina Courage W controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview, Illinois.

Chicago Red Stars W vs North Carolina Courage W — NWSL Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chicago Red Stars W vs North Carolina Courage W