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North Carolina Courage W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026

North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
M. Speck 81'
A. Sanchez 51'
T. Lussi 16'
M. Swanson 12'
6/23/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 11WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

North Carolina Courage W55%
×Draw23%
Chicago Red Stars W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina Courage W
1.83
Chicago Red Stars W
1.09

North Carolina Courage W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 83 away

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.78
Chicago Red Stars W
1.13

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.06
Chicago Red Stars W
1.88

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw
77%
North Carolina Courage W or Chicago Red Stars W
77%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
45%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
31%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
84%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
54%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
28%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
66%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
30%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
71%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.78 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more
55%
level
23%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
23%

North Carolina Courage W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
T. LussiNorth Carolina Courage WNorth Carolina Courage W · M
7.5

Match Events

12'
M. Swanson
16'
T. Lussi↳ B. Pinto
23'
J. Joseph← A. Schlegel
51'
A. Sanchez
61'
V. Pickett← B. Pinto
62'
D. O'Sullivan← R. Jackson
62'
Júlia Bianchi← L. Nesbeth
62'
C. Curran← J. Bike
62'
S. Groom← S. Griffith
66'
Narumi Miura
71'
B. St-Georges← T. Lussi
79'
M. Speck← A. Sanchez
79'
D. Weatherholt← N. Miura
79'
Ally Cook← J. Joseph
81'
M. Speck↳ B. St-Georges
84'
Denise O'Sullivan

Possession

57%North

Shots

14North

Pass accuracy

53%North

Statistics

NorthChicago
Overview
57%Possession43%
14Total Shots6
1Corners1
8Fouls6
Shots
14Total Shots6
8On Target3
2Off Target3
4Blocked0
9Inside Box4
5Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
455Total Passes346
394Accurate Passes267
87%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls6
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

NWSL Women: North Carolina Courage W 3–1 Chicago Red Stars W

North Carolina Courage W beat Chicago Red Stars W 3-1 in NWSL Women on June 23, 2024.

Goals: M. Swanson (12'), T. Lussi (16'), A. Sanchez (51'), M. Speck (81').

North Carolina Courage W controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.