Necaxa 0–1 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CF Pachuca

L. Quinones 34'

10/4/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Necaxa40%

×Draw25%

CF Pachuca35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.35

Necaxa

1.45

CF Pachuca

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 26 away

1.48

creates per match

1.46

1.24

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Necaxa

1.48

CF Pachuca

1.46

allows per match

Necaxa

1.24

CF Pachuca

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

65%

Necaxa or CF Pachuca

75%

Draw or CF Pachuca

60%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

19%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

77%

Necaxa 2+ goals

42%

Necaxa 3+ goals

18%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

74%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

39%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

53%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.48 + CF Pachuca defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.45

CF Pachuca attack 1.46 + Necaxa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Necaxa scores more

40%

level

25%

CF Pachuca scores more

35%

Necaxa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

I. Rodriguez

Necaxa · M

8.3

Match Events

31'

Diber Cambindo

34'

L. Quinones↳ A. Aceves

51'

Eduardo Bauermann

55'

José Rodríguez

60'

C. Sanchez← A. Aceves

64'

I. Luna← O. Idrissi

64'

G. Togni← Kenedy

67'

R. Monreal← D. Cambindo

72'

72'

77'

79'

79'

I. Hernandez← E. Valencia

80'

V. Guzman← P. Pedraza

83'

Carlos Moreno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaCF

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots15

8Corners4

15Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots15

4On Target1

8Off Target5

3Blocked9

8Inside Box7

7Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

383Total Passes300

297Accurate Passes212

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls6

4Yellow Cards3