Necaxa 3–5 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

CF Pachuca

P. Pérez 79', 32'

D. de Buen 53'

S. Rondón 90+4', 45+3', 31'

A. González 88'

E. Montiel 85'

4/12/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Necaxa42%

×Draw25%

CF Pachuca33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.29

Necaxa

1.48

CF Pachuca

1.29

Necaxa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 38 away

1.48

creates per match

1.34

1.24

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Necaxa

1.48

CF Pachuca

1.34

allows per match

Necaxa

1.24

CF Pachuca

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

67%

Necaxa or CF Pachuca

75%

Draw or CF Pachuca

58%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

20%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

77%

Necaxa 2+ goals

43%

Necaxa 3+ goals

19%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

72%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

37%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

56%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.48 + CF Pachuca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

CF Pachuca attack 1.34 + Necaxa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Necaxa scores more

42%

level

25%

CF Pachuca scores more

33%

Necaxa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

S. Rondón

CF Pachuca · F

9.3

Match Events

5'

Pedro Pedraza

14'

Tomás BadaloniGoal cancelled

28'

31'

32'

36'

40'

45+3'

48'

53'

D. de Buen↳ J. Paradela

58'

A. González← O. Idrissi

68'

S. Homenchenko← John Kennedy

68'

A. Bautista← J. Sigala

78'

R. Sandoval← A. Palma

78'

A. Domínguez← P. Pedraza

78'

C. Sánchez← J. Berlanga

79'

P. Pérez

85'

E. Montiel↳ S. Rondón

86'

R. Monreal← P. Pérez

86'

A. Gutierrez← K. Rosero

88'

A. González↳ A. Bautista

90+4'

S. Rondón↳ A. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaCF

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots18

8Corners4

4Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots18

8On Target12

2Off Target4

4Blocked2

3Inside Box9

11Outside Box9

Passing

52%Possession48%

329Total Passes309

253Accurate Passes237

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

4Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1