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CF Pachuca vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
A. González 87'
J. López 85'
S. Rondón 61', 29', 12'
O. Idrissi 54'
D. Cambindo 66', 58'
11/3/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

CF Pachuca50%
×Draw23%
Necaxa27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.83
Necaxa
1.29

CF Pachuca creates 42% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 24 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.50
Necaxa
1.54

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.05
Necaxa
2.17

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
73%
CF Pachuca or Necaxa
77%
Draw or Necaxa
50%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
28%
Necaxa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
84%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
54%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
28%
Necaxa 1+ goals
72%
Necaxa 2+ goals
37%
Necaxa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
65%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.50 + Necaxa defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Necaxa attack 1.54 + CF Pachuca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
50%
level
23%
Necaxa scores more
27%

CF Pachuca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
S. RondónCF PachucaCF Pachuca · F
9.9

Match Events

12'
S. Rondón↳ N. Deossa
19'
Ricardo Monreal
26'
Diber Cambindo
29'
S. Rondón↳ B. González
46'
H. Jurado← D. Gómez
46'
J. Alcántar← A. Mayorga
46'
T. Badaloni← R. Monreal
52'
O. Idrissi← A. Domínguez
54'
O. Idrissi↳ E. Montiel
58'
D. Cambindo↳ J. Paradela
61'
S. Rondón↳ O. Idrissi
64'
J. López← O. González
64'
A. González← N. Deossa
66'
D. Cambindo↳ J. Paradela
68'
Oussama Idrissi
69'
R. Cortéz← B. Garnica
71'
K. Rosero← E. Lara
85'
J. López
86'
Borja Bastón← S. Rondón
86'
J. Saldívar← P. Pedraza
87'
A. González↳ O. Idrissi

Possession

52%CF

Shots

18CF

Pass accuracy

51%CF

Statistics

CFNecaxa
Overview
52%Possession48%
18Total Shots18
3Corners5
6Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots18
10On Target8
7Off Target6
1Blocked4
13Inside Box7
5Outside Box11
Passing
52%Possession48%
455Total Passes418
377Accurate Passes332
83%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Necaxa

CF Pachuca beat Necaxa 6-2 in Liga MX on November 3, 2024.

Goals: S. Rondón (12', 29', 61'), O. Idrissi (54'), D. Cambindo (58', 66'), J. López (85'), A. González (87').

CF Pachuca controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.