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CF Pachuca vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2021

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
S. Rondón 83' (pen)
A. Bautista 79'
B. Garnica 90+6'
5/6/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - Play-offsEstadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

CF Pachuca50%
×Draw24%
Necaxa26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.69
Necaxa
1.15

CF Pachuca creates 47% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 88 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.65
Necaxa
1.22

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.07
Necaxa
1.73

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
74%
CF Pachuca or Necaxa
76%
Draw or Necaxa
50%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
27%
Necaxa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
82%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
50%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
24%
Necaxa 1+ goals
68%
Necaxa 2+ goals
32%
Necaxa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
66%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.07 · 97 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.73 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.65 + Necaxa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Necaxa attack 1.22 + CF Pachuca defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
50%
level
24%
Necaxa scores more
26%

CF Pachuca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
N. DeossaCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
8.7

Match Events

10'
Pedro Pedraza
26'
José Paradela
32'
Fernando Arce Jr.
45+2'
Nelson Deossa
46'
A. Bautista← P. Pedraza
48'
A. Montes← J. Rodríguez
54'
Diber Cambindo
60'
A. Andrade← D. Gómez
60'
J. Alcántar← E. Martínez
61'
B. Samudio← R. Monreal
71'
O. González← M. Rodríguez
71'
L. Rodríguez← C. Sánchez
79'
A. Bautista↳ B. González
80'
Édgar Méndez← F. Arce
82'
Bryan Garnica
83'
Salomón Rondón
83'
S. RondónPenalty
86'
Oussama Idrissi
86'
J. Hernández← O. Idrissi
87'
Oussama Idrissi
87'
Oussama Idrissi
87'
Agustín Oliveros
90+6'
B. Garnica↳ D. Cambindo

Possession

70%CF

Shots

20CF

Pass accuracy

61%CF

Statistics

CFNecaxa
Overview
70%Possession30%
20Total Shots5
9Corners4
6Fouls20
Shots
20Total Shots5
7On Target3
8Off Target2
5Blocked0
11Inside Box3
9Outside Box2
Passing
70%Possession30%
455Total Passes192
372Accurate Passes99
82%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls20
5Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Liga MX: CF Pachuca 2–1 Necaxa

CF Pachuca beat Necaxa 2-1 in Liga MX on May 6, 2024.

Goals: A. Bautista (79'), S. Rondón (83' pen), B. Garnica (90+6').

CF Pachuca controlled possession (70%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.