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CF Pachuca vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
O. Idrissi 33'
A. Dominguez 14'
J. Ruiz 53'
3/4/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 9Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

CF Pachuca52%
×Draw22%
Necaxa26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.94
Necaxa
1.32

CF Pachuca creates 47% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.72
Necaxa
1.54

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.10
Necaxa
2.17

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
74%
CF Pachuca or Necaxa
78%
Draw or Necaxa
48%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
30%
Necaxa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
86%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
58%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
30%
Necaxa 1+ goals
73%
Necaxa 2+ goals
38%
Necaxa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
66%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.72 + Necaxa defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.94

Necaxa attack 1.54 + CF Pachuca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
52%
level
22%
Necaxa scores more
26%

CF Pachuca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
O. IdrissiCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
8.5

Match Events

14'
A. Dominguez↳ B. A. Garcia Caprizo
33'
O. Idrissi↳ B. A. Garcia Caprizo
39'
Agustín Oliveros
46'
K. Gutierrez← I. Tello
46'
J. Ruiz← K. Rosero
46'
E. Lara← R. Martinez
53'
J. Ruiz↳ L. Faravelli
65'
L. Quinones← Kenedy
68'
Carlos Sánchez
74'
A. Bautista← O. Idrissi
79'
Carlos Moreno
88'
C. Calderon← F. Rossano
88'
B. Casas← D. Leyva
89'
V. Guzman← S. Rodriguez
90+7'
Alexis Peña
90+6'
Cristian Calderón
90+4'
Lorenzo Faravelli
90+1'
Emilio Lara

Possession

44%CF

Shots

16CF

Pass accuracy

48%CF

Statistics

CFNecaxa
Overview
44%Possession56%
16Total Shots12
1.28Expected Goals (xG)0.47
8Corners8
19Fouls17
Shots
16Total Shots12
9On Target4
5Off Target5
2Blocked3
9Inside Box6
7Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
333Total Passes419
261Accurate Passes352
78%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
-0.02Goals Prevented-0.02
Discipline
19Fouls17
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides2

Liga MX: CF Pachuca 2–1 Necaxa

CF Pachuca beat Necaxa 2-1 in Liga MX on March 4, 2026.

Goals: A. Dominguez (14'), O. Idrissi (33'), J. Ruiz (53').

Necaxa controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.