Necaxa 1–1 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CF Pachuca

E. Martínez 41'

S. Rondón 90+1' (pen)

2/24/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Necaxa39%

×Draw26%

CF Pachuca35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.31

Necaxa

1.40

CF Pachuca

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 150 away

1.36

creates per match

1.32

1.29

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

CF Pachuca

1.32

allows per match

Necaxa

1.29

CF Pachuca

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

65%

Necaxa or CF Pachuca

74%

Draw or CF Pachuca

61%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

18%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

75%

Necaxa 2+ goals

41%

Necaxa 3+ goals

17%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

73%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

38%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

53%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 138 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + CF Pachuca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

CF Pachuca attack 1.32 + Necaxa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Necaxa scores more

39%

level

26%

CF Pachuca scores more

35%

Necaxa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Martínez

Necaxa · D

8.0

Match Events

27'

M. Rodríguez← B. González

36'

Pedro Pedraza

41'

E. Martínez↳ F. Arce

46'

N. Deossa← P. Pedraza

56'

Andres Arroyo

57'

Ricardo Monreal

58'

J. López← A. Domínguez

61'

H. Jurado← R. Monreal

65'

Heriberto Jurado

65'

Luís Rodríguez

68'

C. Sánchez← L. Rodríguez

68'

O. González← A. Bautista

70'

A. Andrade← D. Gómez

79'

B. Samudio← B. Garnica

79'

Édgar Méndez← D. Cambindo

87'

Erick SánchezPenalty confirmed

90+1'

S. RondónPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaCF

Overview

33%Possession67%

8Total Shots13

1Corners6

11Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots13

2On Target2

5Off Target8

1Blocked3

3Inside Box5

5Outside Box8

Passing

33%Possession67%

262Total Passes548

165Accurate Passes433

63%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1