Mumbai City 0–1 Jamshedpur: Result & Stats

Mumbai City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jamshedpur

R. Tachikawa 87'

4/30/2025

League #545 · Semi-finalsKalinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mumbai City55%

×Draw26%

Jamshedpur19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mumbai CityExpected goals in this matchJamshedpur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.77

Mumbai City

1.53

Jamshedpur

0.77

Mumbai City creates 99% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.20

0.33

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Mumbai City

1.67

Jamshedpur

1.20

allows per match

Mumbai City

0.33

Jamshedpur

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Jamshedpur+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Jamshedpur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw

81%

Mumbai City or Jamshedpur

74%

Draw or Jamshedpur

45%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+

29%

Jamshedpur wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals

78%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

45%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

20%

Jamshedpur 1+ goals

54%

Jamshedpur 2+ goals

18%

Jamshedpur 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

75%

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Jamshedpur away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 1.67 + Jamshedpur defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Jamshedpur attack 1.20 + Mumbai City defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mumbai City scores more

55%

level

26%

Jamshedpur scores more

19%

Mumbai City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Mehta

14'

V. Partap

43'

P. Halder

46'

D. Lalhlimpuia← N. Karelis

46'

B. Fernandes← M. J. Ortiz

46'

R. Das← M. Sanan

54'

H. Javi

68'

J. Manzorro← F. Nazareth

69'

J. Murray← I. Khan

76'

J. Siverio

81'

P. Halder← S. Das

87'

R. Tachikawa

90+1'

G. Nikum← G. Nikum

90+1'

V. Partap← S. Stalin

90+4'

I. Khan← N. Barla

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff