Jamshedpur 1–1 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Jamshedpur

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mumbai City

S. Golui 90'

B. Fernandes 45'

4/9/2026

Indian Super League · Round 7JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Jamshedpur27%

×Draw30%

Mumbai City43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JamshedpurExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.17

Jamshedpur

0.87

Mumbai City

1.17

Mumbai City creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.03

creates per match

1.50

0.83

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Jamshedpur

1.03

Mumbai City

1.50

allows per match

Jamshedpur

0.83

Mumbai City

0.71

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.57scores more

Mumbai City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw

57%

Jamshedpur or Mumbai City

70%

Draw or Mumbai City

73%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+

9%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals

58%

Jamshedpur 2+ goals

22%

Jamshedpur 3+ goals

6%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

69%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

33%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)

39%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.83 · 5 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.03 + Mumbai City defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.87

Mumbai City attack 1.50 + Jamshedpur defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jamshedpur scores more

27%

level

30%

Mumbai City scores more

43%

Mumbai City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Fernandes

Mumbai City · M

7.3

Match Events

44'

Vikram Partap Singh

45'

B. Fernandes↳ P. Noufal

60'

Z. Zothanpuia← B. Lalnuntluanga

68'

R. Tachikawa← L. Cirkovic

74'

Nuno Reis

76'

V. Barretto← R. Das

76'

R. Gabriel← M. K. Sanan

84'

S. Golui← M. Zothanpuia

88'

Phurba Tempa Lachenpa

88'

Phurba Tempa Lachenpa

90+3'

S. Panwar← B. Fernandes

90+3'

Amandeep← P. Noufal

90'

S. Golui↳ N. Stojanovic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JamshedpurMumbai

Overview

59%Possession41%

5Total Shots6

3Corners4

7Fouls5

Shots

5Total Shots6

1On Target2

4Off Target3

0Blocked1

5Inside Box3

0Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

200Total Passes131

154Accurate Passes87

77%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls5

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1