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Jamshedpur vs Mumbai City — Indian Super League 2025

Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Mumbai City
Mumbai City
Javi Hernández 50', 44'
J. Murray 36'
Y. van Nieff 77'
N. Karelis 18'
9/21/2024Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 2JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Jamshedpur29%
×Draw31%
Mumbai City41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jamshedpur
0.88
Mumbai City
1.11

Mumbai City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Jamshedpur
1.03
Mumbai City
1.39

allows per match

Jamshedpur
0.83
Mumbai City
0.72

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.57scores more
Mumbai City-0.06on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

Mumbai City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw
59%
Jamshedpur or Mumbai City
69%
Draw or Mumbai City
71%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+
10%
Mumbai City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals
59%
Jamshedpur 2+ goals
22%
Jamshedpur 3+ goals
6%
Mumbai City 1+ goals
67%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
30%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)
41%
Mumbai City (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.83 · 5 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.72 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.03 + Mumbai City defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Mumbai City attack 1.39 + Jamshedpur defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jamshedpur scores more
29%
level
31%
Mumbai City scores more
41%

Mumbai City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Javi HernándezJamshedpurJamshedpur · M
8.3

Match Events

6'
Javi Hernández
18'
N. Karelis↳ Thaer Krouma
32'
Stephen Eze
36'
J. Murray↳ I. Khan
44'
Sahil Panwar
44'
Javi Hernández
46'
S. Doungel← M. Sanan
50'
Javi Hernández↳ S. Doungel
55'
B. Fernandes← S. Panwar
55'
V. Partap Singh← J. Rane
55'
Noufal PN← B. Singh
66'
Albino Gomes
67'
Javier Siverio
69'
R. Tachikawa← Javi Siverio
77'
Y. van Nieff↳ Tiri
78'
Ashutosh Mehta
79'
Brandon Fernandes
80'
L. Ćirković← Javi Hernández
80'
A. Jadhav← I. Khan
84'
Seminlen Doungel
86'
S. Stalin← L. Chhangte
90+7'
Rei Tachikawa
90+10'
M. Rahman← S. Das

Possession

32%Jamshedpur

Shots

17Jamshedpur

Pass accuracy

45%Jamshedpur

Statistics

JamshedpurMumbai
Overview
32%Possession68%
17Total Shots19
5Corners6
13Fouls3
Shots
17Total Shots19
7On Target6
7Off Target6
3Blocked7
11Inside Box10
6Outside Box9
Passing
32%Possession68%
211Total Passes446
139Accurate Passes366
66%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls3
7Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Indian Super League: Jamshedpur 3–2 Mumbai City

Jamshedpur beat Mumbai City 3-2 in Indian Super League on September 21, 2024.

Goals: N. Karelis (18'), J. Murray (36'), Javi Hernández (44', 50'), Y. van Nieff (77').

Mumbai City controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 17.

The match was played at JRD Tata Sports Complex in Jamshedpur.