Mumbai City 0–3 Jamshedpur: Result & Stats

Mumbai City

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Jamshedpur

Javi Hernández 90+6'

J. Murray 86'

M. Sanan 64'

1/12/2025

Indian Super League · Round 16Mumbai Football Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mumbai City41%

×Draw25%

Jamshedpur33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mumbai CityExpected goals in this matchJamshedpur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.29

Mumbai City

1.47

Jamshedpur

1.29

Mumbai City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.47

creates per match

1.35

1.24

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Mumbai City

1.47

Jamshedpur

1.35

allows per match

Mumbai City

1.24

Jamshedpur

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Jamshedpur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Jamshedpur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw

67%

Mumbai City or Jamshedpur

75%

Draw or Jamshedpur

59%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+

20%

Jamshedpur wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals

77%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

43%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

18%

Jamshedpur 1+ goals

72%

Jamshedpur 2+ goals

37%

Jamshedpur 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

55%

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Jamshedpur away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 1.47 + Jamshedpur defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Jamshedpur attack 1.35 + Mumbai City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mumbai City scores more

41%

level

25%

Jamshedpur scores more

33%

Mumbai City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Javi Hernández

Jamshedpur · M

8.2

Match Events

64'

M. Sanan↳ I. Khan

74'

S. Doungel← I. Khan

76'

Noufal PN← B. Singh

76'

H. Sharma← Y. van Nieff

82'

Lazar Ćirković

83'

R. Tachikawa← L. Ćirković

86'

J. Murray↳ S. Doungel

89'

N. Rodrigues← S. Panwar

89'

J. Rane← V. Partap Singh

89'

Javi Siverio← J. Murray

90+9'

Mehtab Singh

90+9'

Lallianzuala Chhangte

90+2'

Muhammed Uvais

90+6'

Javi Hernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MumbaiJamshedpur

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots11

12Corners2

11Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target3

7Off Target5

3Blocked3

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

403Total Passes415

322Accurate Passes324

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2