Jamshedpur 1–1 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Jamshedpur

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mumbai City

Javi Siverio 60'

L. Chhangte 74'

3/8/2024

Indian Super League · Round 18JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Jamshedpur29%

×Draw31%

Mumbai City41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JamshedpurExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.11

Jamshedpur

0.88

Mumbai City

1.11

Mumbai City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.03

creates per match

1.39

0.83

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Jamshedpur

1.03

Mumbai City

1.39

allows per match

Jamshedpur

0.83

Mumbai City

0.72

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.57scores more

Mumbai City-0.06on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw

59%

Jamshedpur or Mumbai City

69%

Draw or Mumbai City

71%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+

10%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals

59%

Jamshedpur 2+ goals

22%

Jamshedpur 3+ goals

6%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

67%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

30%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)

41%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.83 · 5 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.72 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.03 + Mumbai City defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Mumbai City attack 1.39 + Jamshedpur defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jamshedpur scores more

29%

level

31%

Mumbai City scores more

41%

Mumbai City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Chhangte

Mumbai City · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

Provat Lakra

43'

Daniel Chima Chukwu

46'

Javi Siverio← R. Tachikawa

55'

Yoëll van Nieff

60'

Javi Siverio↳ M. Uvais

69'

N. Barla← M. Sanan

71'

L. Ralte← V. Rai

74'

L. Chhangte↳ V. Partap Singh

79'

Jitendra Singh← P. Laldinpuia

82'

Rehnesh Paramba

82'

Daniel Chima Chukwu

82'

Daniel Chima Chukwu

86'

A. Stevanović← I. Khan

90+7'

G. Singh← Alberto Noguera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JamshedpurMumbai

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots17

2Corners7

6Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots17

4On Target7

6Off Target7

2Blocked3

7Inside Box9

5Outside Box8

Passing

40%Possession60%

334Total Passes511

229Accurate Passes413

69%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2