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Montpellier vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 2 2018

Montpellier
Montpellier
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
A. Mendy 45'
T. Chennahi 4'
T. Bentayeb 61'
M. Adeline 3'
4/4/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 29Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montpellier39%
×Draw27%
Estac Troyes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montpellier
1.27
Estac Troyes
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Montpellier
1.59
Estac Troyes
1.16

allows per match

Montpellier
1.18
Estac Troyes
0.96

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw
66%
Montpellier or Estac Troyes
73%
Draw or Estac Troyes
61%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+
17%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals
72%
Montpellier 2+ goals
36%
Montpellier 3+ goals
14%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
69%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
33%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)
53%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.59 + Estac Troyes defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.27

Estac Troyes attack 1.16 + Montpellier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Montpellier scores more
39%
level
27%
Estac Troyes scores more
34%

Montpellier at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. LaporteMontpellierMontpellier · D
7.9

Match Events

3'
M. Adeline↳ T. Bentayeb
4'
T. Chennahi↳ A. Mendy
40'
Everson Junior
45+1'
Sankhoun Diawara
45'
A. Mendy
60'
A. Ouzenadji← I. Boura
61'
T. Bentayeb
66'
Y. Issoufou← E. Molebe
71'
A. Gueguin← K. Fayad
77'
Alexandre Mendy
78'
Lucas Maronnier
80'
A. Phliponeau← M. Diop
80'
R. Ripart← K. Diawara
90+1'
M. Ifnaoui← M. Detourbet
90+1'
M. El Idrissy← T. Bentayeb

Possession

57%Montpellier

Shots

14Montpellier

Pass accuracy

52%Montpellier

Statistics

MontpellierEstac
Overview
57%Possession43%
14Total Shots14
5Corners9
17Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots14
5On Target4
7Off Target4
2Blocked6
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box8
Passing
57%Possession43%
453Total Passes332
380Accurate Passes262
84%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Montpellier vs Estac Troyes

Montpellier and Estac Troyes drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on April 4, 2026.

Goals: M. Adeline (3'), T. Chennahi (4'), A. Mendy (45'), T. Bentayeb (61').

Montpellier controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.