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Estac Troyes vs Montpellier — Ligue 1 2026

Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Montpellier
Montpellier
W. Khazri 90'
2/19/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Estac Troyes33%
×Draw26%
Montpellier40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estac Troyes
1.23
Montpellier
1.38

Montpellier creates 12% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 99 away

creates per match

Estac Troyes
0.95
Montpellier
1.30

allows per match

Estac Troyes
1.45
Montpellier
1.51

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par
Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw
60%
Estac Troyes or Montpellier
74%
Draw or Montpellier
67%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+
14%
Montpellier wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals
71%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
35%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
13%
Montpellier 1+ goals
75%
Montpellier 2+ goals
40%
Montpellier 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
45%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.45 · 44 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.51 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 0.95 + Montpellier defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Montpellier attack 1.30 + Estac Troyes defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estac Troyes scores more
33%
level
26%
Montpellier scores more
40%

Montpellier at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
K. KouyatéMontpellierMontpellier · D
8.2

Match Events

8'
Lucien Agoumé
46'
J. Porozo← E. Palmer-Brown
46'
J. Chotard← L. Leroy
57'
Joris Chotard
62'
T. Zoukrou← A. Rami
67'
Papa Ndiaga Yade
72'
R. Ripart← Rony Lopes
73'
Teji Savanier
73'
Teji SavanierCard upgrade
79'
W. Khazri← F. Maouassa
79'
K. Fayad← A. Nordin
81'
Xavier Chavalerin
83'
V. Germain← E. Wahi
90'
W. Khazri

Possession

51%Estac

Shots

4Estac

Pass accuracy

49%Estac

Statistics

EstacMontpellier
Overview
51%Possession49%
4Total Shots19
0.12Expected Goals (xG)1.69
2Corners10
12Fouls9
Shots
4Total Shots19
2On Target7
1Off Target8
1Blocked4
1Inside Box10
3Outside Box9
Passing
51%Possession49%
451Total Passes408
361Accurate Passes344
80%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards1

Ligue 1: Estac Troyes 0–1 Montpellier

Montpellier beat Estac Troyes 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 19, 2023.

Goals: W. Khazri (90').

Estac Troyes controlled possession (51%) and registered 4 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.