Estac Troyes 1–0 Montpellier: Result & Stats

Estac Troyes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Montpellier

M. Adeline 31'

8/23/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Estac Troyes42%

×Draw30%

Montpellier28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.88

Estac Troyes

1.17

Montpellier

0.88

Estac Troyes creates 33% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

1.68

creates per match

0.82

0.93

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.68

Montpellier

0.82

allows per match

Estac Troyes

0.93

Montpellier

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

72%

Estac Troyes or Montpellier

70%

Draw or Montpellier

58%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

18%

Montpellier wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

69%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

33%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

11%

Montpellier 1+ goals

59%

Montpellier 2+ goals

22%

Montpellier 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

61%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.93 · 99 matches

Montpellier away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.68 + Montpellier defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.17

Montpellier attack 0.82 + Estac Troyes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

42%

level

30%

Montpellier scores more

28%

Estac Troyes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Adeline

Estac Troyes · M

8.7

Match Events

12'

19'

31'

51'

55'

L. Mincarelli← T. Coulibaly

57'

Everson Junior

61'

M. Ifnaoui← M. Detourbet

63'

T. Chennahi← E. Junior Pereira da Silva

86'

C. Jullien← Y. Mouanga

86'

F. Mahboub← N. Mbuku

89'

A. Diakite← M. Adeline

90+3'

Amadou Diakité

90+2'

A. Ouzenadji← J. Assoumou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacMontpellier

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots7

6Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots7

4On Target0

8Off Target6

2Blocked1

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

572Total Passes380

523Accurate Passes302

91%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0