Montpellier 0–1 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats

Montpellier

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Estac Troyes

X. Chavalerin 74'

1/19/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Montpellier55%

×Draw22%

Estac Troyes23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.22

Montpellier

1.98

Estac Troyes

1.22

Montpellier creates 62% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

1.64

creates per match

1.16

1.28

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Montpellier

1.64

Estac Troyes

1.16

allows per match

Montpellier

1.28

Estac Troyes

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

77%

Montpellier or Estac Troyes

78%

Draw or Estac Troyes

45%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

32%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

86%

Montpellier 2+ goals

59%

Montpellier 3+ goals

31%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

70%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

34%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

70%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.64 + Estac Troyes defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.98

Estac Troyes attack 1.16 + Montpellier defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Montpellier scores more

55%

level

22%

Estac Troyes scores more

23%

Montpellier at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

X. Chavalerin

Estac Troyes · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

Giulian Biancone

33'

B. Dominguès← N. Chadli

38'

Florent Mollet

46'

O. El Hajjam← A. Rami

58'

Arnaud Souquet

62'

Teji SavanierCard reviewed

63'

Teji Savanier

66'

Joris Chotard

68'

Stephy Mavididi

69'

M. Camara← T. Dingomé

70'

S. Sambia← A. Souquet

74'

V. Germain← S. Mavididi

74'

X. Chavalerin↳ G. Rodrigues

85'

B. Makouana← E. Wahi

85'

N. Gioacchini← J. Chotard

86'

Y. Larouci← E. Palmer-Brown

87'

Jordan Ferri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierEstac

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots13

5Corners4

12Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots13

2On Target5

5Off Target7

4Blocked1

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

475Total Passes438

398Accurate Passes357

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Montpellier vs Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes beat Montpellier 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 19, 2022.

Goals: X. Chavalerin (74').

Montpellier controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.

Montpellier vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Montpellier vs Estac Troyes