Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Montpellier vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 1 2026

Montpellier
Montpellier
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
T. Savanier 81', 15'
T. Sainte-Luce 3'
Mama Baldé 17'
F. Tardieu 12' (pen)
8/7/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Montpellier55%
×Draw22%
Estac Troyes23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montpellier
1.98
Estac Troyes
1.22

Montpellier creates 62% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

creates per match

Montpellier
1.64
Estac Troyes
1.16

allows per match

Montpellier
1.28
Estac Troyes
2.31

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw
77%
Montpellier or Estac Troyes
78%
Draw or Estac Troyes
45%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+
32%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals
86%
Montpellier 2+ goals
59%
Montpellier 3+ goals
31%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
70%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
34%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)
70%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.64 + Estac Troyes defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.98

Estac Troyes attack 1.16 + Montpellier defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Montpellier scores more
55%
level
22%
Estac Troyes scores more
23%

Montpellier at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
T. SavanierMontpellierMontpellier · M
9.5

Match Events

3'
T. Sainte-Luce↳ F. Maouassa
12'
F. TardieuPenalty
15'
T. Savanier
17'
Mama Baldé↳ A. Bruus
30'
B. Makouana← S. Mavididi
52'
Béni Makouana
78'
L. Leroy← F. Maouassa
79'
N. Cozza← T. Sainte-Luce
79'
M. Estève← M. Sakho
81'
T. Savanier↳ N. Cozza
84'
A. Souquet← E. Wahi
84'
K. Dong← Y. Larouci
89'
W. Odobert← E. Palmer-Brown

Possession

53%Montpellier

Shots

17Montpellier

Pass accuracy

50%Montpellier

Statistics

MontpellierEstac
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots16
3Corners6
13Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots16
6On Target10
4Off Target4
7Blocked2
8Inside Box11
9Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
398Total Passes342
335Accurate Passes285
84%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Montpellier vs Estac Troyes

Montpellier beat Estac Troyes 3-2 in Ligue 1 on August 7, 2022.

Goals: T. Sainte-Luce (3'), F. Tardieu (12' pen), T. Savanier (15', 81'), Mama Baldé (17').

Montpellier controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.