Montpellier 1–2 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats

Montpellier

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Clermont Foot

A. Mendy 22'

A. Hunou 45'

Y. Salmier 25'

5/2/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montpellier44%

×Draw27%

Clermont Foot29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.08

Montpellier

1.38

Clermont Foot

1.08

Montpellier creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 98 away

1.59

creates per match

0.99

1.18

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Montpellier

1.59

Clermont Foot

0.99

allows per match

Montpellier

1.18

Clermont Foot

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

71%

Montpellier or Clermont Foot

73%

Draw or Clermont Foot

56%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

21%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

75%

Montpellier 2+ goals

40%

Montpellier 3+ goals

16%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

66%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

29%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

60%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.59 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Montpellier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Montpellier scores more

44%

level

27%

Clermont Foot scores more

29%

Montpellier at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

T. Guivarch

Clermont Foot · G

7.9

Match Events

18'

Khalil Fayad

22'

A. Mendy↳ E. Tchato

25'

Y. Salmier

45'

A. Hunou↳ I. Coulibaly

46'

M. Tourraine← E. H. Kone

51'

Khalil Fayad

51'

Khalil Fayad

56'

Y. Issoufou← E. Molebe

60'

Adrien Hunou

70'

K. Bamba← A. Hunou

77'

T. Savanier← N. Mbuku

86'

J. Gastien← I. Fakili

87'

Mathys Tourraine

90+1'

I. M'Bahia← A. Camblan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierClermont

Overview

64%Possession36%

14Total Shots7

11Corners2

20Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots7

6On Target3

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

11Inside Box7

3Outside Box0

Passing

64%Possession36%

480Total Passes285

419Accurate Passes211

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0