Clermont Foot 1–1 Montpellier: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Montpellier

K. Andrić 62'

T. Savanier 10' (pen)

11/6/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Clermont Foot32%

×Draw26%

Montpellier42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.46

Clermont Foot

1.25

Montpellier

1.46

Montpellier creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 99 away

1.00

creates per match

1.30

1.62

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.00

Montpellier

1.30

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.62

Montpellier

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

58%

Clermont Foot or Montpellier

74%

Draw or Montpellier

68%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

14%

Montpellier wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

71%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

36%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

13%

Montpellier 1+ goals

77%

Montpellier 2+ goals

43%

Montpellier 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

44%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.51 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.00 + Montpellier defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Montpellier attack 1.30 + Clermont Foot defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

32%

level

26%

Montpellier scores more

42%

Montpellier at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

B. Kamara

Montpellier · G

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Wahbi Khazri

10'

T. SavanierPenalty

34'

Nicolas Cozza

42'

Florent Ogier

59'

M. Cham← Y. Magnin

59'

J. Dossou← Jérémie Bela

62'

K. Andrić↳ E. Rashani

65'

A. Souquet← F. Maouassa

65'

J. Chotard← K. Fayad

70'

Y. Massolin← S. Khaoui

71'

V. Germain← W. Khazri

80'

J. Allevinah← K. Andrić

80'

B. Diallo← E. Rashani

84'

A. Nordin← E. Wahi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontMontpellier

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots7

5Corners1

14Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots7

7On Target3

6Off Target3

3Blocked1

11Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

399Total Passes354

296Accurate Passes255

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1