Clermont Foot 2–1 Montpellier: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Montpellier

M. Bayo 69' (pen)

E. Rashani 4'

J. Chotard 32'

5/8/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 36Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Clermont Foot32%

×Draw26%

Montpellier42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.46

Clermont Foot

1.25

Montpellier

1.46

Montpellier creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 99 away

1.00

creates per match

1.30

1.62

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.00

Montpellier

1.30

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.62

Montpellier

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

58%

Clermont Foot or Montpellier

74%

Draw or Montpellier

68%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

14%

Montpellier wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

71%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

36%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

13%

Montpellier 1+ goals

77%

Montpellier 2+ goals

43%

Montpellier 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

44%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.51 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.00 + Montpellier defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Montpellier attack 1.30 + Clermont Foot defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

32%

level

26%

Montpellier scores more

42%

Montpellier at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Bayo

Clermont Foot · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

E. Rashani↳ M. Bayo

10'

J. Allevinah← E. Rashani

24'

Florent Mollet

32'

J. Chotard↳ A. Souquet

35'

Salis Abdul Samed

60'

Johan Gastien

64'

L. Da Cunha← J. Dossou

65'

S. Khaoui← S. Samed

69'

M. BayoPenalty

71'

Arnaud Souquet

74'

Joris Chotard

74'

Leo Leroy

82'

G. Kyei← M. Bayo

82'

Oriol Busquets← J. Gastien

82'

Thuler← M. Esteve

82'

S. Delaye← L. Leroy

86'

B. Makouana← S. Mavididi

86'

N. Gioacchini← A. Souquet

90+1'

Y. Guermouche← V. Germain

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontMontpellier

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots11

5Corners3

10Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target2

5Off Target6

3Blocked3

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

419Total Passes434

318Accurate Passes333

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Ligue 1: Clermont Foot 2–1 Montpellier

Clermont Foot beat Montpellier 2-1 in Ligue 1 on May 8, 2022.

Goals: E. Rashani (4'), J. Chotard (32'), M. Bayo (69' pen).

Montpellier controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.

Clermont Foot vs Montpellier — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 1: Clermont Foot 2–1 Montpellier