Clermont Foot 1–1 Montpellier: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Montpellier

K. Bamba 45'

N. Mbuku 27'

10/28/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Clermont Foot35%

×Draw32%

Montpellier33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.93

Clermont Foot

0.98

Montpellier

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

1.31

creates per match

0.82

1.03

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.31

Montpellier

0.82

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.03

Montpellier

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

67%

Clermont Foot or Montpellier

68%

Draw or Montpellier

65%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

13%

Montpellier wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

62%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

26%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

8%

Montpellier 1+ goals

61%

Montpellier 2+ goals

24%

Montpellier 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

52%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Montpellier away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Montpellier defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.98

Montpellier attack 0.82 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

35%

level

32%

Montpellier scores more

33%

Clermont Foot at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

K. Bamba

Clermont Foot · M

9.6

Match Events

27'

N. Mbuku↳ T. Chennahi

45'

K. Bamba↳ Y. Salmier

46'

I. Coulibaly← C. O. Konate

46'

V. Nsimba← K. Boto

62'

Theo Chennahi

63'

J. Astic← A. Hunou

68'

E. Junior Pereira da Silva← K. Fayad

68'

A. Sishuba← T. Savanier

68'

V. Orakpo← N. Pays

74'

A. Camblan← I. Fakili

76'

Simon Ngapandouetnbu

80'

T. Sainte-Luce← L. Mincarelli

86'

A. Baallal← K. Bamba

90+1'

Ayanda Sishuba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontMontpellier

Overview

40%Possession60%

13Total Shots16

4Corners10

11Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots16

6On Target4

3Off Target6

4Blocked6

10Inside Box13

3Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

335Total Passes507

270Accurate Passes447

81%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1