Montpellier 2–1 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats

Montpellier

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Clermont Foot

E. Wahi 72', 61'

S. Khaoui 32'

3/19/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Montpellier47%

×Draw25%

Clermont Foot28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.18

Montpellier

1.60

Clermont Foot

1.18

Montpellier creates 36% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

1.64

creates per match

1.07

1.28

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Montpellier

1.64

Clermont Foot

1.07

allows per match

Montpellier

1.28

Clermont Foot

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

72%

Montpellier or Clermont Foot

75%

Draw or Clermont Foot

53%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

24%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

80%

Montpellier 2+ goals

47%

Montpellier 3+ goals

22%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

69%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

33%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

63%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.64 + Clermont Foot defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Clermont Foot attack 1.07 + Montpellier defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Montpellier scores more

47%

level

25%

Clermont Foot scores more

28%

Montpellier at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Khaoui

Clermont Foot · F

8.3

Match Events

32'

S. Khaoui

57'

Johan Gastien

61'

E. Wahi↳ I. Sylla

70'

W. Khazri← S. Mavididi

70'

Y. Magnin← M. Gonalons

70'

Jérémie Bela← A. Maurer

72'

E. Wahi↳ F. Sacko

79'

K. Andrić← G. Kyei

79'

B. Diallo← S. Khaoui

80'

K. Fayad← E. Wahi

86'

87'

90+2'

90+1'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierClermont

Overview

56%Possession44%

23Total Shots16

3.37Expected Goals (xG)1.80

11Corners4

15Fouls15

Shots

23Total Shots16

9On Target8

8Off Target6

6Blocked2

14Inside Box9

9Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

453Total Passes359

354Accurate Passes261

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

7Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Montpellier vs Clermont Foot

Montpellier beat Clermont Foot 2-1 in Ligue 1 on March 19, 2023.

Goals: S. Khaoui (32'), E. Wahi (61', 72').

Montpellier controlled possession (56%) and registered 23 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier.

Montpellier vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Montpellier vs Clermont Foot