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Millwall vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
9/29/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Millwall38%
×Draw28%
Sheffield Utd35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.22
Sheffield Utd
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 45 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Sheffield Utd
1.27

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Sheffield Utd
1.19

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
65%
Millwall or Sheffield Utd
72%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
62%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
16%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
70%
Millwall 2+ goals
34%
Millwall 3+ goals
12%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
69%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
32%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
52%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more
38%
level
28%
Sheffield Utd scores more
35%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Millwall vs Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Millwall 3-2 in Championship on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at The Den in London.