Lincoln 0–3 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Lincoln

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Peterborough

J. Ward 83'

J. Taylor 67'

J. Clarke-Harris 28'

3/18/2023

League One · Round 37LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lincoln53%

×Draw22%

Peterborough25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.29

Lincoln

1.96

Peterborough

1.29

Lincoln creates 52% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

2.01

creates per match

1.24

1.33

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Lincoln

2.01

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Lincoln

1.33

Peterborough

1.92

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more

Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

75%

Lincoln or Peterborough

78%

Draw or Peterborough

47%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

31%

Peterborough wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

86%

Lincoln 2+ goals

58%

Lincoln 3+ goals

31%

Peterborough 1+ goals

72%

Peterborough 2+ goals

37%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

68%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lincoln scores more

53%

level

22%

Peterborough scores more

25%

Lincoln at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

N. Ogbeta

Peterborough · D

7.7

Match Events

22'

Daniel Mandroiu

28'

J. Clarke-Harris

40'

L. Plange← E. Erhahon

52'

Harrison Burrows

59'

Paudie O’Connor

65'

E. Bishop← M. Virtue-Thick

67'

J. Taylor↳ N. Ogbeta

73'

Oliver Norburn

76'

H. Kyprianou← H. Burrows

77'

B. Thompson← O. Norburn

79'

K. Poku← E. Mason-Clark

81'

J. Makama← J. Diamond

81'

M. Sanders← L. Sørensen

83'

J. Ward↳ K. Poku

90+2'

J. Knight← J. Ward

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnPeterborough

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots8

2Corners1

13Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots8

1On Target4

6Off Target3

2Blocked1

2Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

335Total Passes433

244Accurate Passes350

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Peterborough

Peterborough beat Lincoln 3-0 in League One on March 18, 2023.

Goals: J. Clarke-Harris (28'), J. Taylor (67'), J. Ward (83').

Peterborough controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.

Lincoln vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Peterborough