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Lincoln vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Peterborough
Peterborough
A. Scully 49'
T. Eyoma 10' (OG)
1/9/2021League OneLeague One · Round 23LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lincoln53%
×Draw22%
Peterborough25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.96
Peterborough
1.29

Lincoln creates 52% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Peterborough
1.24

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Peterborough
1.92

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
75%
Lincoln or Peterborough
78%
Draw or Peterborough
47%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
31%
Peterborough wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
86%
Lincoln 2+ goals
58%
Lincoln 3+ goals
31%
Peterborough 1+ goals
72%
Peterborough 2+ goals
37%
Peterborough 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
68%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lincoln scores more
53%
level
22%
Peterborough scores more
25%

Lincoln at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. GrantLincolnLincoln · M
7.6

Match Events

10'
T. EyomaOwn goal
16'
Adam Jackson
21'
Liam Bridcutt
23'
Nathan Thompson
49'
A. Scully
54'
M. Rogers← R. Howarth
63'
Reece Brown
66'
Nathan Thompson
66'
Nathan Thompson
70'
R. Jade-Jones← H. Burrows
71'
N. Mason← S. Szmodics
71'
D. Butler← S. Dembélé
79'
E. Hamilton← I. Kanu
79'
R. Broom← R. Brown
80'
Timothy Eyoma
89'
Frankie Kent
90'
James Jones

Possession

48%Lincoln

Shots

18Lincoln

Pass accuracy

48%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnPeterborough
Overview
48%Possession52%
18Total Shots12
7Corners6
15Fouls17
Shots
18Total Shots12
5On Target3
6Off Target5
7Blocked4
12Inside Box5
6Outside Box7
Passing
48%Possession52%
386Total Passes408
304Accurate Passes347
79%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls17
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

League One: Lincoln 1–1 Peterborough

Lincoln and Peterborough drew 1-1 in League One on January 9, 2021.

Goals: T. Eyoma (10' o.g.), A. Scully (49').

Peterborough controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.