Leicester 2–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

J. Vardy 65' (pen)

N. Kanté 52'

T. Deeney 75' (pen)

11/7/2015

Premier League · Round 12King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Leicester51%

×Draw24%

Watford24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.07

Leicester

1.67

Watford

1.07

Leicester creates 56% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 112 away

1.55

creates per match

0.96

1.19

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Leicester

1.55

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Leicester

1.19

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

76%

Leicester or Watford

76%

Draw or Watford

49%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

28%

Watford wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

81%

Leicester 2+ goals

50%

Leicester 3+ goals

23%

Watford 1+ goals

66%

Watford 2+ goals

29%

Watford 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

68%

Watford (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.19 · 170 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.55 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Watford attack 0.96 + Leicester defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leicester scores more

51%

level

24%

Watford scores more

24%

Leicester at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Albrighton

Leicester · M

7.7

Match Events

46'

S. Okazaki← J. Schlupp

52'

N. Kanté

65'

Heurelho Gomes

65'

J. VardyPenalty

70'

J. Paredes← E. Capoue

75'

T. DeeneyPenalty

76'

A. Diamanti← A. Nyom

84'

N. Dyer← R. Mahrez

90'

A. King← D. Drinkwater

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterWatford

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots8

4Corners2

0Fouls0

Shots

12Total Shots8

6On Target4

4Off Target4

2Blocked0

7Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

376Total Passes556

264Accurate Passes410

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

0Fouls0

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1