LDU de Quito 0–0 Flamengo: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Flamengo

4/22/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

LDU de Quito52%

×Draw25%

Flamengo24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.04

LDU de Quito

1.65

Flamengo

1.04

LDU de Quito creates 59% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 39 away

2.29

creates per match

1.33

0.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.29

Flamengo

1.33

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.75

Flamengo

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Flamengo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

76%

LDU de Quito or Flamengo

75%

Draw or Flamengo

48%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

28%

Flamengo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

81%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

49%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

23%

Flamengo 1+ goals

65%

Flamengo 2+ goals

28%

Flamengo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

68%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Flamengo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Flamengo attack 1.33 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

52%

level

25%

Flamengo scores more

24%

LDU de Quito at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff