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Flamengo vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Flamengo
Flamengo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
5/16/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Flamengo69%
×Draw19%
LDU de Quito11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo
2.04
LDU de Quito
0.67

Flamengo creates 204% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 24 away

creates per match

Flamengo
2.50
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Flamengo
0.50
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Flamengo+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw
89%
Flamengo or LDU de Quito
81%
Draw or LDU de Quito
31%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+
44%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals
87%
Flamengo 2+ goals
60%
Flamengo 3+ goals
33%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
49%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
15%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)
86%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 40 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 2.50 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Flamengo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Flamengo scores more
69%
level
19%
LDU de Quito scores more
11%

Flamengo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Flamengo 2–0 LDU de Quito

Flamengo beat LDU de Quito 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro.