Flamengo 2–2 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Flamengo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

LDU de Quito

Gustavo Henrique 88'

Pedro 32'

J. Julio 60'

F. Guerra 35'

5/20/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group G - 5Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Flamengo69%

×Draw20%

LDU de Quito11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.66

Flamengo

2.00

LDU de Quito

0.66

Flamengo creates 203% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 24 away

2.41

creates per match

0.83

0.49

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Flamengo

2.41

LDU de Quito

0.83

allows per match

Flamengo

0.49

LDU de Quito

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

89%

Flamengo or LDU de Quito

80%

Draw or LDU de Quito

31%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

43%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

86%

Flamengo 2+ goals

59%

Flamengo 3+ goals

32%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

48%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

14%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

86%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.49 · 39 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 2.41 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.00

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Flamengo defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Flamengo scores more

69%

level

20%

LDU de Quito scores more

11%

Flamengo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Gustavo Henrique

Flamengo · D

7.6

Match Events

15'

W. Arao

19'

C. Cruz

26'

João Gomes← Éverton Ribeiro

32'

Pedro

35'

F. Guerra↳ J. Alcivar

46'

Bruno Henrique← Léo Pereira

46'

Ramon← Gabriel Barbosa

54'

Gerson

58'

A. Muñoz← M. Zunino

58'

C. Martínez← B. Arce

60'

J. Julio↳ L. Amarilla

62'

G. De Arrascaeta← Vitinho

62'

Diego← Gerson

72'

B. Henrique

79'

J. Quinteros

82'

L. Ayala← C. Cruz

88'

Gustavo Henrique↳ G. De Arrascaeta

90+2'

J. Espinoza← L. Villarruel

90+2'

P. Perlaza← J. Quinteros

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FlamengoLDU

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots5

8Corners2

18Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots5

4On Target2

3Off Target2

3Blocked1

7Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

449Total Passes348

389Accurate Passes274

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1