LDU de Quito 2–1 Flamengo: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Flamengo

Luis Chicaiza 73'

Juan Anangonó 45'

Bruno Henrique 19'

4/25/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

LDU de Quito42%

×Draw27%

Flamengo31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.09

LDU de Quito

1.32

Flamengo

1.09

LDU de Quito creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.69

creates per match

1.17

1.01

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.69

Flamengo

1.17

allows per match

LDU de Quito

1.01

Flamengo

0.96

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.51scores more

Flamengo+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

69%

LDU de Quito or Flamengo

73%

Draw or Flamengo

58%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

19%

Flamengo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

73%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

38%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

15%

Flamengo 1+ goals

66%

Flamengo 2+ goals

30%

Flamengo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

58%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.69 + Flamengo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.32

Flamengo attack 1.17 + LDU de Quito defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

42%

level

27%

Flamengo scores more

31%

LDU de Quito at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Luis Chicaiza

LDU de Quito · M

8.2

Match Events

19'

Bruno Henrique↳ Pará

26'

Jefferson Intriago

34'

Rodrigo Caio

45'

Juan Anangonó↳ Carlos Rodriguez

46'

Diego← Giorgian De Arrascaeta

53'

Adolfo Muñoz← José Ayoví

55'

Luis Chicaiza← Jhojan Julio

66'

Vitinho← Gabriel Barbosa

73'

Luis Chicaiza

74'

Luis Chicaiza

81'

Nicolás Freire← Franklin Guerra

83'

César← Diego Alves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUFlamengo

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots7

11Corners2

14Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots7

3On Target5

10Off Target1

3Blocked1

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

423Total Passes409

354Accurate Passes330

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: LDU de Quito 2–1 Flamengo

LDU de Quito beat Flamengo 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 25, 2019.

Goals: Bruno Henrique (19'), Juan Anangonó (45'), Luis Chicaiza (73').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

LDU de Quito vs Flamengo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: LDU de Quito 2–1 Flamengo