LDU de Quito 2–3 Flamengo: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Flamengo

L. Amarilla 61'

C. Martínez 50'

Gabriel Barbosa 85' (pen), 3'

Bruno Henrique 30'

5/5/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group G - 3Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

LDU de Quito42%

×Draw27%

Flamengo31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.09

LDU de Quito

1.32

Flamengo

1.09

LDU de Quito creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.69

creates per match

1.17

1.01

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.69

Flamengo

1.17

allows per match

LDU de Quito

1.01

Flamengo

0.96

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.51scores more

Flamengo+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

69%

LDU de Quito or Flamengo

73%

Draw or Flamengo

58%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

19%

Flamengo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

73%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

38%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

15%

Flamengo 1+ goals

66%

Flamengo 2+ goals

30%

Flamengo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

58%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.69 + Flamengo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.32

Flamengo attack 1.17 + LDU de Quito defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

42%

level

27%

Flamengo scores more

31%

LDU de Quito at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Gabriel Barbosa

Flamengo · F

8.7

Match Events

3'

Gabriel Barbosa↳ Éverton Ribeiro

27'

L. Caicedo

28'

M. Corozo

30'

Bruno Henrique↳ Gabriel Barbosa

36'

J. Alcivar

46'

L. Amarilla← M. Zunino

46'

L. Ayala← C. Cruz

46'

A. Muñoz← L. Caicedo

46'

Hugo Souza← Diego Alves

50'

C. Martínez↳ L. Ayala

58'

Hugo Moura← João Gomes

61'

68'

68'

70'

74'

J. Espinoza← L. Piovi

75'

J. Espinoza

78'

Gustavo Henrique← Bruno Viana

78'

Vitinho← Éverton Ribeiro

85'

Gabriel Barbosa

85'

Gabriel BarbosaPenalty

88'

Renê← Gabriel Barbosa

90+2'

J. Quinteros← M. Corozo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUFlamengo

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots10

10Corners2

17Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots10

2On Target5

11Off Target3

5Blocked2

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

438Total Passes415

370Accurate Passes351

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls6

5Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Flamengo

Flamengo beat LDU de Quito 3-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 5, 2021.

Goals: Gabriel Barbosa (3', 85' pen), Bruno Henrique (30'), C. Martínez (50'), L. Amarilla (61').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

LDU de Quito vs Flamengo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Flamengo