ŁKS Łódź 2–1 Korona Kielce: Result & Stats

ŁKS Łódź

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Korona Kielce

8/4/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 3Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź38%

×Draw26%

Korona Kielce37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.36

ŁKS Łódź

1.39

Korona Kielce

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 105 away

1.26

creates per match

0.95

1.77

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.26

Korona Kielce

0.95

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.77

Korona Kielce

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Korona Kielce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

63%

ŁKS Łódź or Korona Kielce

74%

Draw or Korona Kielce

62%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

17%

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

75%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

40%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

16%

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

74%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

39%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

51%

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.26 + Korona Kielce defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Korona Kielce attack 0.95 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

38%

level

26%

Korona Kielce scores more

37%

ŁKS Łódź at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff