Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ŁKS Łódź vs Korona Kielce — I Liga 2018

ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
3/5/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 22Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

ŁKS Łódź47%
×Draw26%
Korona Kielce27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź
1.46
Korona Kielce
1.05

ŁKS Łódź creates 39% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Korona Kielce
1.03

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.07
Korona Kielce
1.29

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par
Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Korona Kielce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw
73%
ŁKS Łódź or Korona Kielce
74%
Draw or Korona Kielce
53%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
23%
Korona Kielce wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
77%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
43%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
18%
Korona Kielce 1+ goals
65%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
28%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
63%
Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.63 + Korona Kielce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Korona Kielce attack 1.03 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more
47%
level
26%
Korona Kielce scores more
27%

ŁKS Łódź at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź vs Korona Kielce

ŁKS Łódź and Korona Kielce drew 0-0 in I Liga on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Łódź.