Korona Kielce 1–0 ŁKS Łódź: Result & Stats | I Liga

Korona Kielce

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ŁKS Łódź

8/21/2021

I Liga · Round 5Suzuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Korona Kielce35%

×Draw27%

ŁKS Łódź38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.27

Korona Kielce

1.21

ŁKS Łódź

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 103 away

1.29

creates per match

1.43

1.11

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.29

ŁKS Łódź

1.43

allows per match

Korona Kielce

1.11

ŁKS Łódź

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

ŁKS Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

62%

Korona Kielce or ŁKS Łódź

73%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź

65%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

15%

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

70%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

34%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

12%

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

72%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

36%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

48%

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.29 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.43 + Korona Kielce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

35%

level

27%

ŁKS Łódź scores more

38%

ŁKS Łódź at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff