Korona Kielce 2–1 ŁKS Łódź: Result & Stats

Korona Kielce

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

ŁKS Łódź

2/12/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 20Suzuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Korona Kielce57%

×Draw24%

ŁKS Łódź19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.89

Korona Kielce

1.73

ŁKS Łódź

0.89

Korona Kielce creates 94% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 36 away

1.21

creates per match

0.64

1.13

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.21

ŁKS Łódź

0.64

allows per match

Korona Kielce

1.13

ŁKS Łódź

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

ŁKS Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

81%

Korona Kielce or ŁKS Łódź

76%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź

43%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

32%

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

82%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

52%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

25%

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

59%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

22%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

75%

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.13 · 105 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.21 + ŁKS Łódź defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 + Korona Kielce defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

57%

level

24%

ŁKS Łódź scores more

19%

Korona Kielce at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff