Kristiansund BK 2–1 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ham-Kam

M. Isah 82'

S. Kilen 3'

L. Mares 1'

2/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kristiansund BK42%

×Draw24%

Ham-Kam34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.43

Kristiansund BK

1.63

Ham-Kam

1.43

Kristiansund BK creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

1.14

1.72

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.33

Ham-Kam

1.14

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

1.72

Ham-Kam

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristiansund BK+0.00on par

Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

66%

Kristiansund BK or Ham-Kam

76%

Draw or Ham-Kam

58%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

22%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

80%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

48%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

22%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

76%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

42%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

56%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.33 + Ham-Kam defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ham-Kam attack 1.14 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

42%

level

24%

Ham-Kam scores more

34%

Kristiansund BK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

L. Mares

3'

S. Kilen

82'

M. Isah

Kristiansund

Ham-Kam

12

24

23

3

5

14

⚽

10

17

20

21

12

33

3

5

6

20

16

9

⚽

Kilen

7

⚽

Isah

19

Alvheim

Manager: Amund Skiri

Kristiansund BK substitutes

40Rod2BorsetAalberg77Magnusson27Ronning32BenjaminsenNyenetue

Manager: Thomas Myhre

Ham-Kam substitutes

1OstraatKukleci7Jonsson9Udahl15Osnes-RingenSoberg18Simenstad22Nilsen26PedersenYekee11GjerdalenRusen